Wednesday, October 30, 2013
My Personal Health Insurance Comparison
Monday, October 28, 2013
Another Market Force within Obamacare
Here are the results for plans for my wife and me from Blue Cross-Blue Shield.
This being the case, the market force at play within Obamacare is one that should be driving all the young, healthy people onto low-premium, high deductible "Bronze" level plans, that they can tie to a Health Savings Account.
And so my question is, what happens then to the structure of this program?
If everyone who is healthy enough to forego a "maintenance" insurance plan chooses to do so (and why wouldn't they?), my early assumption has to be that the insurance industry will be unable to support the older sicker people based on the lack of premium revenue. The whole idea here was to force everyone to buy insurance, raise premiums, and use the higher premiums on healthy people to pay for sicker peoples' maintenance insurance. But if younger people in general go the route of paying the bare minimum into the insurance pool as possible, instead contributing to their own HSA accounts, and the deductibles be damned, doesn't this eventually pull just as big of a Jenga piece out from the foundational levels of the scheme as people just not signing up anyway?
I do recognize that the more immediate problems with the system, such as not being able to sign up, and having no real financial reason to sign up due to the extremely low penalty, are likely to drive this train off the rails much sooner than my scenario. However, I also think that my scenario is another one that dooms this system as well. Ironically, however, taken to the next logical step in the long view, the market response would be to increase deductibles further, meaning that people would be much, much more inclined to begin actually shopping for their healthcare, rather than just showing up and expecting to be serviced for no charge, meaning that in the long run, prices to the consumer might actually come down as the healthcare industry would finally again be required to service the consumer rather than throw a fat bill at the insurance company's wall to see what sticks. Over the long term, proponents might actually trumpet to the heavens that the program has worked!
But I wouldn't give our government the credit for such foresight or patience as to wait for all of that to come to fruition. If they had the foresight or patience for that, they'd have simply written a program that majorly incentivized people to get onto HSA's, and opened up the insurance markets across state lines, giving people more freedom and choice. But the government response to a market response of insurance prices going up will surely be one instead of further control, perhaps to put some kind of fiat cap on deductibles, and eliminate HSA eligible plans, putting us all on more expensive maintenance insurance, leading to the necessity to increase the subsidy to lower income citizens, or perhaps even broadening the criteria for acceptance onto Medicaid (which is already looming large as a major wrench in the works).
Ultimately, this would also mean the healthcare industry will continue to overcharge for services, since there will continue to be no price feedback from the actual consumer.
Monday, August 22, 2011
A Letter to Sam Harris on the Economy
You have requested that economists in particular contact you in regard to the 08-19-11 Addendum to your blog post "How Rich is Too Rich?" I am not an economist, but I follow economics very closely. I'm an engineer by degree and run a construction company, so it is perhaps in my nature, as well as required of my position, to know what's happening in the world, economically. I hope you will take a few minutes to think about my take on your ideas, however, because admittedly this is long, I will not be surprised or disheartened if you do not.
First, I will assess your first idea:
Future breakthroughs in technology (e.g. robotics, nanotech) could eliminate millions of jobs very quickly, creating a serious problem of unemployment.
In a very broad sense, I think that the creation of a massive robotics industry causing large scale unemployment would perhaps be akin to the fear once upon a time that the rise of the automobile industry would have caused large-scale unemployment due to their replacing horse-drawn carriages. To shamelessly steal from DeVito's speech in Other People's Money, there was once a company that made the world's best buggy whips, whose employees surely found themselves eventually unemployed due to the rise of the automobile. But as those people lost their jobs due to the rise of an industry that made their profession nearly obsolete, so too did a new industry arise whose ability to employ massive numbers far surpassed the ability to employ of carriage-makers, horse farmers and buggy whip makers combined. In the aggregate, employment rose.
Will robotics eliminate jobs? Of course, it has already eliminated thousands upon thousands of jobs, from the automobile industry to the airplane manufacturing industry to the construction even of submarines. Many welds on the newest submarines, for instance, require accuracy that only robotics can achieve. This means that welders that worked on submarines are out of that particular work. But they are still welders. They just need to weld elsewhere. Perhaps they might even go to work for the company that is manufacturing the robots.
If we look to the future of robotics, the scenario that kills millions and millions of jobs is the perhaps Asimov's Foundation series scenario, or more recently, the scenario in the movie, Surrogates, where robots become so commonplace, there is nearly one robot, or more, for every human being.
But who makes the robots? Surely for the smaller components and the excessively detailed work, there are other robots. But there are still going to be assembly line jobs. There are going to be jobs for the people who need to supply the materials, all the way back to the original mines they came from. Robots won't do everything. All along the way there will need to be people to do the work. Perhaps this is best explained easily in Leonard Read's pamphlet, "I, Pencil." If the industry grows to such a magnitude as you suggest, then yes, surely it will create massive unemployment in other currently existing industries, but it will create massive employment in a new, growing industry. Such is the nature of capitalism and economic progression.
But many of your readers responding to you have already covered this basic idea, and you are looking for something more.
I am suggesting, however, that there is nothing that rules out the possibility of vastly more powerful technologies creating a net loss of available jobs and concentrating wealth to an unprecedented degree.
To this I would suggest that there is and always has been this possibility, however the missing piece of the equation is necessarily the rate of population growth. It did not used to be uncommon for families to have 4, 6, 8 or even 10 or 12 kids. When our economy was largely driven by agrarian life, it was economically necessary for a family to have as many workers as possible to work the farm. Given the rise of mechanical farming equipment, the farm family has gotten smaller over the years. In the early-to-mid 20th century boom in manufacturing, we saw our population skyrocket as we had an economy that we were comfortable still having several children per family, as factory workers would have assumed that their kids could eventually go to work in the factory, if nothing else. I would suggest to you that as many manufacturing jobs have moved overseas, families have trended to get smaller as a response, with families focusing on grooming their children for white collar work, whether as engineers, academics, or businessmen.
The moving of blue collar manufacturing positions overseas has also been a response to the market. Union contracts in the United States grew to the point that the manufacturing of goods locally has in large part become untenable. I would put this largely on the unsustainable nature of a pension model for retirement, moreso than the wage rates themselves, but this is another topic altogether. So if we are talking about a "serious problem of unemployment" I assume we are talking about it locally in the United States, because technically speaking, the jobs haven't disappeared, they have gone elsewhere, where the labor can be had for significantly less money.
I make this point because, if we were to see such a significant rise in robotics, it would be not only because the manufacture, sale and maintenance of the robots was that much cheaper than American labor, but also that much cheaper than rock-bottom foreign labor. Looking at it macro-economically, taking the world market as a whole, and taking employment to be a worldwide phenomenon, because it is a worldwide phenomenon, I feel the possibility of a rise in robotics to replace employment of human labor to such an extent that all levels of human employment are made economically obsolete to be something that is probably a few hundred years down the line, should it ever happen. There's an entire world's worth of cheap labor to exploit before a saturation of robotics seems likely to even begin to take place.
Now, on to your next idea:
The federal government should levy a one-time wealth tax (perhaps 10 percent for estates above $10 million, rising to 50 percent for estates above $1 billion) and use these assets to fund an infrastructure bank.
You do, strangely, caveat this by ultimately saying "Leaving aside fears of government ineptitude, please tell me why it would be a bad idea for the rich to fund such a bank voluntarily."
Let me first point out that these are two wildly different things. The federal government descending upon the rich and absconding with 10-50% of everything they own from behind the barrel of a gun is not the same thing as our country's 400-something billionaires voluntarily pooling their money together to charter a new bank that would be used to fund infrastructure projects. To insinuate anything of the kind is disingenuous.
The latter would most certainly not be a bad thing, though let's remember that the structure of such an entity would be as a bank, loaning money out to municipalities and states and the federal government to fund infrastructure projects. This money would have to be paid back with interest, and that this is really not any different than how this already happens, except for the fact that this bank would be something like another Federal Reserve style central bank dedicated solely to infrastructure, though, I would assume and hope, not allowed to print money. To that effect, I guess I don't really understand the point of it, other than that it's an accounting trick to move debt out of treasuries and into another entity. The debt still grows, only it doesn't affect the country's balance sheet. At some point it becomes another Fannie/Freddie-type of entity, with so much debt that it doesn't even know how much of it is even good anymore.
This is to say nothing of the point, also, that if the super-rich are the ones funding this bank, they are getting even richer because of it, thereby increasing the wealth gap you are hoping to close.
If you have taken the time to read through all of this, thank you.
Sincerely,
Paul Kroenke
Monday, August 15, 2011
A Would-Be Nobel Laureate
Why is it that these people think that if they do the exact same things wrong, only bigger and bigger, somehow in the end it will ever turn out right?
After a world-wide house of cards collapses, what will they do then?
Their only hope for another 30 years down the road will be to have imperialized space to the same extent as they have this planet, so they can ruin economies at a universal level as well!Now, Nobel Prize Winner in Economics and "economic journalist" for the New York Times Paul Krugman has jumped on my bandwagon of crazy.
Ladies and gentleman, stand in awe of the intellect of a Nobel Laureate!
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Illinois Pension Reform Begins
The major questions over the bill that are tackled here are:
What will current employees keep?
How will the bill affect the public sector employee retirement age, currently 55, as opposed to private sector retirement age, currently 65?
What is the State Constitutional protection of pension benefits?
Monday, May 9, 2011
Damn These Elites
So it was the bad judgment of the elite, not the greediness of the common man, that caused America’s deficit. And much the same is true of the European crisis.
Needless to say, that’s not what you hear from European policy makers. The official story in Europe these days is that governments of troubled nations catered too much to the masses, promising too much to voters while collecting too little in taxes. And that is, to be fair, a reasonably accurate story for Greece. But it’s not at all what happened in Ireland and Spain, both of which had low debt and budget surpluses on the eve of the crisis.
The real story of Europe’s crisis is that leaders created a single currency, the euro, without creating the institutions that were needed to cope with booms and busts within the euro zone. And the drive for a single European currency was the ultimate top-down project, an elite vision imposed on highly reluctant voters.
Does any of this matter? Why should we be concerned about the effort to shift the blame for bad policies onto the general public?
One answer is simple accountability. People who advocated budget-busting policies during the Bush years shouldn’t be allowed to pass themselves off as deficit hawks; people whopraised Ireland as a role model shouldn’t be giving lectures on responsible government.
But the larger answer, I’d argue, is that by making up stories about our current predicament that absolve the people who put us here there, we cut off any chance to learn from the crisis. We need to place the blame where it belongs, to chasten our policy elites. Otherwise, they’ll do even more damage in the years ahead.
Let me give a particular shout-out to Alan Greenspan, who played a crucial role both in financial deregulation and in the passage of the Bush tax cuts — and who is now, of course, among those hectoring us about the deficit.
KRUGMAN: I think frankly it’s got to be — business investment is not going to be the driving force in this recovery. It has to come from things like housing, things that have not been (UNINTELLIGIBLE).
DOBBS: We see, Paul, housing at near record levels, we see automobile purchases near record levels. The consumer is still very much in this economy. Can he or she — or I should say he and she, can they bring back this economy?
KRUGMAN: Well, as far as the arithmetic goes, yes, it is possible. Will the Fed cut interest rates enough? Will long-term rates fall enough to get the consumer, get the housing sector there in time? We don’t know
But the larger answer, I’d argue, is that by making up stories about our current predicament that absolve the people who put us here there, we cut off any chance to learn from the crisis. We need to place the blame where it belongs, to chasten our policy elites. Otherwise, they’ll do even more damage in the years ahead.
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Fight of the Century
Five days ago, they released their follow up, a spectacularly deep video, both musically and visually. The video presents the debate between Keynes and Hayek, beginning with a dual grilling before a Congressional panel, and moving to the boxing ring as they trade economic theory blows. We end with Keynes being patted on the back by the Fed Chairman, Wall Street types, and the media at large, while Hayek is shunned, but suddenly embraced in full by a crowd of Regular People.
The message is fantastic throughout, and is an excellent continuation of the debate. It's already gotten over 450,000 views. Why not give it a few more? Enjoy "Fight of the Century!"
BONUS: Lyrics with hyperlinked relevant articles and posts from Mises.org
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Chart Fu: Fisking Rachel Maddow
However, I do have to point out that the chart is horribly misleading (from a Liberal, no less...I know, unbelievable right?), as is the assertion by the chart-maker (Dick Seaman!) that "If voters don't understand this, the media has failed them." Well, here is the chart...
First of all, this is an obvious shot at getting Obama off the hook for the enormous growth in spending under his watch by comparing it to past spending that took place under Republican presidents. There is a glaring omission about this chart that has Dick Seaman spraying his results blindly all over Queen Maddow's inbox.
TIME AND RATE OF DEBT INCREASE
By putting the presidents and their debt in a meaningful order, we can see that things are far different than Maddow's Seaman Chart would have people think.
First, we see that over the course of 8 years, Reagan increased the debt by about $1.75 trillion, or 288%, an average rate of 36% per year.
Bush I increased the debt by about $1.5 trillion, or 155%, in four years, an average rate of 39% per year.
Clinton slowed things down slightly, increasing the debt about $1.6 trillion over 8 years, an average rate of 17.3% per year.
Things ramped up again under Bush II, nearly doubling in 8 years by $4.89 trillion, but still a slower overall rate of increase than Reagan or Bush I, averaging just over 23% per year.
The chart also shows that the debt under Obama has increased by nearly 134% since taking office, about 2.25 years into his first term as President, for an average rate of 59.44% per year. While it would seem to me to be unlikely that this rate will continue through to the end of his first term, if it did, we would expect the debt to top $25 trillion.
The resulting percentages in Maddow's Seaman Chart would burst forth with much different excitement. We would see that the debt occurring under Reagan and the Bushes, totaling $8.14 trillion, would amount to 32% of the total debt, and that all by itself, the debt under Obama would total $14.67 trillion, or 57.8% of the total debt.
If voters don't understand this, the media has failed them.
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Monday, November 8, 2010
Goolsbee Goes Down
Friday, November 5, 2010
Hayek vs. Keynes Part Deux
Fear the Boom and Bust
The Economist Buttonwood Gathering
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
That Damn Rand Paul
First of all, even from a Liberal's standpoint, I'm not understanding how it's damning that he doesn't believe taxes should be raised on anybody. We are in a position economically that raising taxes at any level will, not might, will, hurt the economy. Beyond that, a discussion on interconnectivity is warranted.
Economically speaking the idea of interconnectivity is more true than untrue. If interconnectivity has decreased over time it's because the government has gotten in the way of it, becoming the primary source of income for many of the poor, rather than incentivizing them to go to work. Ideas like interconnectivity are economic arguments of efficiency. Is it more efficient for a poor or middle class person to receive money for services rendered in the private market, or for the government first to tax the higher income person more, collect that money, then distribute back out to the poor person?
The answer to that question is answered within the question. Of course it's faster for someone to have a job in the private market where he or she is paid every week. The problem has become that government programs assume by default that the poor cannot rise on their own within the private market, when in many cases, history bears out that the inefficiency created by said government intervention has made it worse for the poor, rather than better. The Chicago Housing Authority for instance, segregated black poor into the south and west sides, and cut them off almost entirely from the city's normal flow of economic activity, forcing them eventually to rely on government subsidy. It was not the intended consequence, but it was the consequence, nonetheless. Now the CHA is rehousing everyone, and is insisting that their tenants be spread all throughout the city, in order that they be more likely to be within the normal flows of economic activity. They are requiring interconnectivity and promoting efficiency.
Contrary to what the folks at Kos may believe, Rand Paul does not believe that there are no poor people. There are poor people. Always have been, always will be. His intent is to move us away from thinking in terms of the status quo of class warfare. His intent is to move us away from thinking in terms that the government is the only entity that can possibly be responsible for aiding the poor. It's an idea of economic efficiency, and an idea of promoting more self reliance within our culture, generally speaking. And both of these are good ideas.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Explaining Free Trade in Three Minutes
Thanks to Tom Palmer at Cato
Friday, December 18, 2009
Mesirow Financial Backs Bernanke
(Link if video won't play: http://www.chicagobusiness.com/cgi-bin/multiMedia.pl?mmId=978)
In an argument that amounts to, "well, what was he supposed to do?" Chief Economist at Mesirow Financial, Diane Swonk, discusses why she thinks anybody deriding Ben Bernanke is simply trying to use him as a scapegoat.
An interesting little interview with Crain's Chicago Business here, that gives us a glimpse into the mindset of those interested in rolling with the status quo. Henry Bee would be proud.
What Wins You Person of the Year
Hat Tip: Malkin
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Public Option Lemonade
OR
How the Government makes little girls cry.
HT: Cato Twitter
Monday, December 14, 2009
Peter Schiff vs. David Epstein
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Free Market Healthcare
"We have this insane system now, where you need healthcare, you're the buyer. I'm the doctor, I'm the seller of healthcare, and someone else pays the bill. Who the heck is gonna shop for price when somebody else is payin' the bill?"
That's the money quote to start off this fantastic clip from Reason.tv, that implores us to follow the Lasik model for the rest of healthcare. Enjoy!
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
It's Costing the World a Fortune
Today, a new clip from the same roundtable, as Schiff gets technical and dismantles Bullard's weak sauce theory that other countries will for some unknown reason return to the dollar during times of crisis. Schiff also goes on to make a strong bet with Blinder on the continued reserve status of the US Dollar. As prescient as the man is, his forecast is nonetheless chilling.